In a move that highlights the growing rift between the U.S. and China over high-tech trade, Nvidia will no longer include China in its revenue and profit forecasts, CEO Jensen Huang announced Thursday at a conference in Paris. The decision follows the tightening of U.S. export restrictions on advanced semiconductors, a policy aimed at curbing China’s access to critical AI-enabling technology.
“I’m not counting on it,” Huang said when asked whether the Biden-Trump transition administration might lift export controls after recent trade talks. “Our forecasts will not include the China market.”
$2.5 Billion in Revenue Lost—And Counting
Nvidia, a key player in the global AI hardware ecosystem, has been hit hard by the restrictions. The company missed out on an estimated $2.5 billion in potential revenue after U.S. controls blocked sales of its H20 AI chip, a model specifically designed to comply with export regulations.
While Nvidia had prepared for the blow, booking a $4.5 billion charge related to unsold inventory, the damage was slightly less than feared. However, the move to exclude China entirely from forecasts signals that the company expects no near-term policy relief.
Huang reiterated his skepticism about the effectiveness of the curbs, stating, “The goals of the export controls are not being achieved… They need to be well-articulated and tested over time.”
Tech, Trade, and Tension
The U.S. has increasingly restricted exports of high-end chips to China out of concern that American-made semiconductors could be used in military or surveillance applications. While some microchips may see loosened restrictions, “very high-end Nvidia chips” will remain under lock, according to Kevin Hassett, Director of the U.S. National Economic Council.
This policy has placed Nvidia in the geopolitical crosshairs. The company sits at the intersection of two competing national agendas: America’s desire to lead the AI revolution, and China’s determination to achieve tech independence.
As AI races into new frontiers—from national security to cloud infrastructure—the stakes are no longer just financial, but strategic.
Critics Say Curbs Are Backfiring
Huang’s criticism adds to a chorus of voices questioning whether U.S. chip export restrictions are producing the intended results. Speaking previously in Taiwan, Huang warned that the measures may be hurting U.S. companies more than they are slowing Chinese innovation.
Analysts agree. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities noted, “With the H20 ban essentially handing a good portion of Nvidia’s business to Huawei on a silver platter, the U.S. may be inadvertently accelerating China’s domestic chip development.”
The Road Ahead: Global Expansion and Strategic Shifts
Despite these setbacks, Nvidia continues to thrive. The company posted a 69% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2025, buoyed by explosive demand for AI chips outside China.
Looking ahead, Huang announced that Nvidia will launch the world’s first industrial AI cloud computing platform in Europe, powered by its Blackwell chip architecture. This aligns with Nvidia’s long-term strategy of positioning itself as the backbone of the AI-powered global economy—from autonomous vehicles to generative AI infrastructure.
No Turning Back
By excluding China from its financial forecasts, Nvidia has acknowledged the new normal in tech geopolitics. The global AI race isn’t just about speed or innovation—it’s about navigating an increasingly fragmented landscape shaped by trade policy, national security, and the relentless march of technological progress.
For now, Nvidia is betting that its diversification and leadership in AI innovation will more than compensate for the loss of the Chinese market. But in the background looms a larger question: Can the world build AI under digital iron curtains?